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The difference between success and failure on Forex / CFD trading is highly likely to depend primarily on which assets you decide to trade each week and in which directionand not on the exact methods you can use to determine trade inputs and outputs.

So at the beginning of the week it is good to look at the overall picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments affect macro basicstechnical factors and market sentiment. There are several strong long-term trends in the market right now that can be taken advantage of. Read below for my weekly analysis.

I wrote in my previous piece on the 11th^Thursday June that the best trading opportunities for this week are likely to be:

• Long the NASDAQ 100. The index ended the week higher by 3.98%.
• Long the USD/JPY currency pair after a rebound at a key support level such as ¥139.05. The low of the week was only a few pips below this level, so there was an opportunity to take a profitable trade of about 2 units and 1 unit of risk.
• Long from the currency pair GBP/USD. This ended the week higher by 1.94%.
• Long of Cocoa Futures. CC1! ended the week higher by 2.41%

My prediction yielded a total quantifiable win of 7.33%, an average gain of 1.83% per highlighted asset, which was an excellent weekly performance.

The market is now most focused on the fallout from last week’s weaker-than-expected US CPI (inflation) data (down from 4.9% annualized rate to 4.0%, less than the 4.1% that was expected) and the first data The Fed has been on hiatus for many months, although it seems clear that more Fed rate hikes are coming, probably as soon as next month. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank will hold policy meetings this week and will be closely watched to see if they both raise rates by 0.25% as expected.

Another notable item is the continued strong bull market in stocks, to some extent globally, but especially in the US, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 both hit one-year highs. The question is will the US economy go into recession and how much will the Fed raise and what will be the impact on the stock market? The Fed is widely expected to hike again in July and the terminal rate is nearing a level where the risk-free yield is not far from the average annual stock market yield. However, it is important to keep in mind that after accounting for inflation, real interest rates in the US are barely 1%, so the returns we are seeing in equity markets this year are very attractive to investors. The NASDAQ 100 is up about 40% since the start of 2023, while the S&P 500 is up more than 15% over the same period.

Other key data released last week were:

1. The main refinancing rate and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement – this brought in a 25 basis point increase as expected.
2. Bank of Japan rate and monetary policy statement – ultra-loose monetary policy was maintained, leading to further weakening of the Japanese yen.
3. US PPI fell 0.3%, further than expected, reinforcing expectations that inflation is now falling sharply in the US.
4. US retail sales – it turned out exactly as expected.
5. Preliminary US Consumer Sentiment – ​​Slightly higher than expected, indicating that consumer demand is still a bit strong.
6. China’s industrial production – rose 3.5% year-on-year as expected.
7. UK GDP – up 0.2% month-on-month in line with expectations.
8. New Zealand’s GDP – down 0.1% last quarter as expected.
9. US Unemployment Claims – slightly higher than expected.
10. UK Unemployment Claims (Claimant Count Change) – slightly lower than expected.
11. Australia’s unemployment rate – The rate unexpectedly fell from 3.7% to 3.6%.

The coming week is likely to see a lower level in the markets volatility than last week as there will be much less impact and release of central bank data, although we will see policy meetings at the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. This week’s key dates are publishedin order of importance:

1. The Bank of England’s official summary of bank rates and monetary policy
2. Evaluation of interest rates and monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank
3. Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress.
4. UK CPI (inflation) data.
5. US unemployment claims
6. Flash Manufacturing Services & PMI in USA, UK, Germany and France

Monday will be a public holiday in the US, Thursday and Friday will be a public holiday in China.

The weekly price chart below shows The US dollar index printed a fairly large bearish candlestick last week, in line with its long-term bearish trend. This was the dollar’s biggest weekly decline since January of this year.

The dollar remains in a technically valid long-term bearish trend, whose price is lower than 3 and 6 months ago. Another bearish factor we see this week is the invalidation of the former support level at 102.801, which previously acted as solid support. We are also seeing a pattern of lower highs in recent weeks.

I think the next week will make the most sense to trade against the US dollar, except maybe in the case of USD/JPY, because the Japanese yen is so weak.

Dollar weakness was cemented this week as the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in months.

We have seen a strong rise the NASDAQ 100 index for the past week, which is the eighth week in a row. The picture here looks very bullish, the market is racing to the upside and is already up around 40% this calendar year before the year is even halfway through.

Several bullish factors persist:

• The weekly candle closed higherat the highest closing price in more than a year for the fifth week in a row.
• The weekly candlestick closed near its high price.
• Stock markets are generally bullishand the S&P 500 index it’s also technically bullish, but less so, closing last week at a new 1-year high after confirming a bull market by all common metrics in the previous weeks.
• The Fed approved a rate hike, boosting stocks.

However, there is one reason why bulls should be cautious in the coming week: the price hit the resistance level at 15156.2, which held.

The NASDAQ 100 still looks like a buy to mebut only after a firm daily close above 15156.2.

USD/JPY currency pair it rallied significantly last week to hit its highest weekly close in 7 months and end the week right at its high. These are bull signs.

However, the US dollar overall cannot be said to be in a long-term bullish trend, so there is a conflict here. The upward movement is due to a very weak Japanese yen, which has fallen even more strongly against other currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound over the past week.

The Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy at its meeting last week.

As a trend trader in the major currency pairs, I am long on this currency pair and I want to stay long until we see a big decline. However, the case for this long trade is getting weaker, especially now that the Fed approved a rate hike last week.

This currency pair looks like a buy if it returns to a key support level and rebounds firmly there especially for ¥140.79.

GBP/USD currency pair printed a strongly bullish candlestick that closed near the top of its range, which is a bullish sign. This was the strongest weekly gain since November 2022. The British pound stands out as a relatively strong currency.

Tthe pound is in a long-term bullish trend and the US dollar is weak. The price hit a new 1-year high last week.

Technically, we see strong bullish momentum that is supported by fundamental analysis as we see signs of policy divergence between the US central bank and the Bank of England., with the BoE looking more hawkish while the Fed passed a hike at its meeting last week. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% this week.

This pair is usually good to trade on dips, and as we see the price rallying hard to new highs, this currency pair looks like a buy.

Currency pair AUD/USD it had a strong upside breakout last week and finally broke through the strong resistance area around the big quarter number at $0.6750, which it held for several weeks. The Australian dollar stands out as a relatively strong currencyin fact, it is now the strongest major currency.

We see bullish momentum here, driven in part by the Fed approving a US rate hike last week, while renewed risk appetite and some strong equity markets are helping to support the Aussie.

Despite these bullish factors, it should be noted that the price is not trading in a bullish blue sky and has been held by the resistance level converging on the $0.6900 round number.

I don’t have a strong feeling that the price will rise over the next week, but I wouldn’t want to be short this currency pair either.

Cocoa futures driven by a new multi-year high price neared a weekly range high. The price chart below shows just how steep and orderly a strong bullish trend this has been, with price neatly controlled by a powerful linear regression channel over the past 40 weeks or so.

Demand for cocoa is strong as ever, but there are supply issues and expectations are growing that there will be a poor harvest in Côte d’Ivoire this year.

This trend is probably very mature, so buying now may be risky. However, the strength of the bullish momentum is so strong here that it is tempting to get involved, and trend traders probably won’t want to miss out on this long trade.

USD/MXN currency pair is in a strong long-term bearish trend as seen in the price chart below.

The weekly candlestick was of average, albeit healthy size, it closes pretty close to the bottom of its price range. The price hit a 7-year low, which is significant.

The health and predictability of this trend is highlighted by the 40-week linear regression channel, which nicely contains the trend price action. This suggests that this trend is relatively likely to be stable and therefore to continue.

Although the US dollar is in a clear bearish trend, the Mexican peso’s strength is unusual, driven by strong export growth and an onshoring trend from services and industry originating in Mexico.

Here’s how I see the best business opportunities this week:

• Long the NASDAQ 100 Index.
• Long the USD/JPY currency pair after a rebound at a key support level such as ¥140.79.
• Long from the currency pair GBP/USD.
• Long of Cocoa futures.

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