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The difference between success and failure on Forex / CFD trading is highly likely to depend primarily on which assets you decide to trade each week and in which directionand not on the exact methods you can use to determine trade inputs and outputs.

So at the beginning of the week it is good to look at the overall picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments affect macro basicstechnical factors and market sentiment. There are some long-term trends in the market right now that could be profitably exploited.

Read below for my weekly analysis.

I wrote in my previous article on the 25thThursday June that the best trading opportunities for this week are likely to be:

  • Long from the currency pair USD/JPY. The pair rose 0.40% for the week.
  • Bitcoin long after daily close above $31,000. This has not been set.
  • NASDAQ 100 long after daily close above 15156.2. This was only set at the weekly deadline on Friday.

My prediction yielded a total quantifiable win of 0.40%, an average win of 0.13% per highlighted asset.

When markets open a week later, they are likely to focus on last Friday’s stock market rally and strong US economic data released late last week.. Final US GDP data was released last Thursday, which was expected to show the economy growing at an annual rate of 1.4%, but was significantly higher by 2%, indicating that the US economy is doing better than expected. This was complemented by strong consumer confidence data released earlier in the week.

Friday’s release of the US Core PCE Price Index, a key indicator of the likely pace of inflation, rose 0.3% month-on-month, as expected, indicating no surprises on the inflation front.

Thursday’s data initially saw equity markets sell off as stronger growth suggested the Fed might need to take a slightly more hawkish stance, but on Friday those concerns dissipated, sparking a broad stock market rally that was the widest in months in the US. . Fed member Goolsby said he was undecided about raising rates next month. S&P 500 index hit its highest weekly close in 15 months and the NASDAQ 100 hit its highest weekly close in 13 months.

Other major stories in the market last week were the release of Germany’s preliminary CPI (inflation) data, which was expected to have increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the continued weakness in the Japanese yen with speculation that the Bank of Japan will intervene when the USD/JPY currency pair reaches ¥145 which happened on Friday.

Other key data released last week were:

  1. Canada’s CPI (inflation) – rose 0.3% month-on-month as expected, but some core metrics were lower.
  2. Canada’s GDP – This came in worse than expected, showing no growth when a 0.2% month-on-month increase was expected.
  3. Australia’s CPI (Inflation) – This decline showed a stronger than expected rate from an annualized rate of 6.8% to 5.6%, prompting a sell-off in the Aussie dollar.

We are likely to see a somewhat higher level in the markets this coming week volatility until last week, as there will be one central bank policy meeting plus the release of US non-farm payrolls and average earnings data. This week’s key dates are publishedin order of importance:

  1. Average hourly earnings in the US
  2. Nonfarm Employment Change in the US
  3. Minutes of the US FOMC meeting
  4. US JOLTS Jon Openings
  5. US ISM Services & Manufacturing PMI
  6. US unemployment rate
  7. RBA Cash Rate & Rate Statement
  8. Swiss CPI (Inflation)
  9. OPEC meeting
  10. Canadian unemployment

Tuesday will be a public holiday in the US, Monday is a public holiday in Canada.

The weekly price chart below shows the US dollar index was tied doji candlesticks last week.

The dollar is clearly going nowhere and is in the middle of a fairly long-term consolidation. The price is higher than 3 months ago, but lower than 6 months ago, indicating the absence of any long-term trend.

All indications point to indecisiveness in the dollar and that is unlikely to change this week unless the US jobs and earnings data due at the end of the week produce a really big surprise.

I think it will make the most sense to focus on opportunities in other currencies over the coming week instead of the US dollar such as the weak Japanese yen.

Weekly US Dollar Index Chart

After last week saw the first drop after eight consecutive weeks of gains, we saw a rally the NASDAQ 100 index during the last week when the price finally closed on Friday after a strong rally above the resistance level I identified at 15156.2 as shown in the price chart below.

This suggests bullishness break out it just happened, although the volume was not very strongand the long-term picture looks very optimisticwith the market running upwards and already up about 40% this calendar year, showing strong bullish momentum.

Summer seasonality tends to cause stock markets to move up or down, but now the key resistance level at 15156.2 seems to be broken, I see the index as a buy. If the price quickly falls below this level and does not bounce back very quickly, it will indicate a failed bullish breakout.

NASDAQ 100 weekly chart

USD/JPY currency pair it rose again last week and hit its highest weekly close in the last 7 months, but it is worth noting how a substantial upper wick in the weekly candlestickwhich is shown in the price chart below and the fact that price briefly touched high above the key round number at ¥145 before retreating and printing with a lower level of resistance.

These factors suggest that the price may now have reached an intermediate high and the bullish trend could be due for a pause.

The US dollar is doing nothing, but the Japanese yen is weakening due to the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which is increasingly different from the monetary policies of the other major central banks.

As a trend trader in the major currency pairs, I am long on this currency pair and want to stay on it. However, I would avoid entering any new trade until we see a daily close above ¥145.

USD/JPY weekly chart

Currency cross EUR/JPY rose last week to hit another 14-year high.

Before trend traders to get too excited, it’s important to remember that this says a lot more about the weak Japanese yen than the euro, although the euro was one of the strongest major currencies last week.

Although the USD/JPY currency pair is trending more reliably than this currency cross, the Euro is prone to trending and we see the price here trading up to the blue sky.

If you want to bet on Yen weakness in the medium to long term, it might be an idea to use a mix of stronger currencies that could include the euro.

Anyone trading the Japanese Yen right now should keep in mind that the USD/JPY currency pair has reached ¥145 on Friday and declined from there – this level has been the subject of much speculation regarding potential intervention by the Bank of Japan, so it appears to have become a fairly solid resistance barrier that may cap further gains against the yen.

EUR/JPY weekly chart

GBP/JPY currency cross rose last week to hit another 7-year high.

Before trend traders get too excited, it’s important to remember that this says a lot more about the weak Japanese yen than the euro, although the euro was one of the strongest major currencies last week.

Although the USD/JPY currency pair is trending more reliably than this currency cross, the Euro is prone to trending and we see the price trading up to the blue sky here.

If you want to bet on yen weakness in the medium to long term, it could be an idea to use a mix of stronger currencies which could include the British pound.

Anyone trading the Japanese Yen right now should keep in mind that the USD/JPY currency pair has reached ¥145 on Friday and declined from there – this level has been the subject of much speculation regarding potential intervention by the Bank of Japan, so it appears to have become a fairly solid resistance barrier that may cap further gains against the yen.

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

After last week’s strong rise bitcoin have been quietly consolidating below a key resistance level very congruent with the round number at $31,000.

This could be considered either bullish or bearish, but we have no decision yet. Price action also suggests another breakout or a major bearish run reversal. whatever happens it seems likely that bitcoin has reached a tipping point.

The odds in favor of a reversal may be slightly higher, as the earlier rally was partly driven by the increasing likelihood that regulators will approve bitcoin ETFs in the US.but the SEC has just expressed some caution about it, which may push the price down.

If Bitcoin ETFs they start to look more realistic and regulators soften their stance, and we have at a daily close above $31,000 I will see Bitcoin as a buyas the price will have room to move up to $33,445 before reaching any key resistance levels.

Bitcoin weekly chart

Price Cocoa in the long term – since October 2022 – it is advancing strongly with a strong and predictable bullish trend. The price has increased by approximately 50% during this period, which is a large increase.

The Cocoa futures price chart below shows a linear regression analysis study applied to the trend since October, showing the price action is very predictable and has remained in the regression channel. This may indicate a continuing trend.

The price rallied strongly last week and closed very close to the top of its range, so we are seeing signs of bullish momentum. However, it may be wise to wait for consolidation and an upside breakout before entering a new long trade so as not to “catch a falling knife”.

There is strong global demand for cocoa and problems with some crops in Africa that are helping to drive up the price.

Weekly cocoa chart

Here’s how I see the best business opportunities this week:

  • Long USD/JPY currency pair after daily close above ¥145.
  • Bitcoin long after daily close above $31,000.
  • Long the NASDAQ 100 Index.

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