USDJPY moved lower today and got off the boil a bit (see videos here and here). The drift lower started against the trend line of the channel against this week’s swing highs (green numbered circles). The lows have moved below the lower channel trendline, but stopped short of the rising 100-hour MA (blue line) currently at 144.19. The daily low reached 144,194.

What’s next?

Heading into the close, it looks like the price will remain above the 100 hourly moving average. This leaves next week open to either a probe further down for a break OR a bounce off the level and continuation of the bullish bias.

In principle, the BOJ remains committed to an expansionary policy. Fed likely to hike in July and potentially in 2023

However, if there is a shift in policy in Japan or if the BOJ intervenes, there could be a move back down. .