• Previous was 54.4
  • Expected Production 49.0 vs 46.2
  • Composite 52.0 vs 53.2 previous
  • “Challenges in forecasting future demand trends weighed on expectations for next year’s outlook, driving confidence to its lowest level in 2023 to date. Relatively muted optimism stemmed from the services sector, where forecasts for business activity weakened. However, manufacturers expressed more positive sentiment on the outlook as expectations hit their strongest since April”2022

A decline in the services index ended a five-month streak of gains, while manufacturing improved near 50. Services, for one, are a much bigger part of the US economy, and today’s disappointment coincided with soft numbers from Europe.

The uptick in optimism from manufacturers is another green bullet for the sector, which may emerge from recession late this year or early next year and offer growth risks for 2024, although cars could turn that around.

Here is the overall rating from S&P Global:

US companies signaled a further increase in business activity during July, with the services sector continuing to drive growth. However, the pace of expansion eased to the slowest in five months as service providers saw a more modest increase in output and manufacturers reported broadly unchanged output levels at the start of the third quarter. New orders remained in expansion territory, although growing at a more moderate pace. A steady increase in new service export orders has helped fuel the recovery as domestic demand has lost some momentum, often due to higher interest rates. On the pricing front, increased cost pressures continued to be led by the services sector. However, producers saw a resurgence in input pricesand service companies reported slower growth in operating costs.

They don’t always publish price indexes, but this month they did:

Should we be worried about this rise in service prices?

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