Next Friday, the US will release the official employment report for June. The market agrees on a wage increase of 200,000. Analysts at Wells Fargo forecast profit 245 thousand.
“May’s jobs report saw a strong rise in non-farm payrolls with a gain of 339k. However, the household survey added weight to the view that the labor market continues to gradually soften, with household employment falling by 310,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%.
“We expect non-agricultural wages growth moderated in June. Demand for workers continues to fall, with initial jobless claims rising between survey weeks and the four-week average up nearly 20% over the past year. Meanwhile, job offers continued to decline in June.”
“The cooling in the labor market remains incremental rather than sudden. Therefore, we are looking for what we believe to be a still strong gain of 245K new jobs in June, but will be watching closely for revisions through May given a 22-year low in survey response rates.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to fall back to 3.6% in anticipation of some rebound in the household employment measure.”