Bitcoin (BTC) emerges from a hectic macro week to circle some classic trend lines near $26,000 – what could happen next?

After some brutal tests of traders’ resolve over the past seven days, the price of BTC is still determined to hold familiar ground.

Market participants are in “wait and see” mode as a lack of clear direction characterizes the biggest cryptocurrency at the start of the new week’s trading.

Holidays in the United States mean traditional markets will only open on June 20, giving at least a day’s grace before any surprises hit.

But there’s still a lot left to deal with from last week — including BlackRock’s filing for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now there is talk that Fidelity Investments could follow suit.

What will it take to inspire the BTC price to embrace the trend? Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the main topics currently being discussed among traders and analysts.

No relief for nervous bitcoin traders

The final weekly close for BTC/USD saw little change over the past seven days.

Just above $26,000, “sideways” is the name of the game for this pair, which weathered plenty of potential volatility triggers during the week.

However, the path to new three-month lows was short-lived, and traders are now cautiously waiting for new directional cues without giving up their bearish outlook just yet.

“I’m staying long until we show any signs of a reversal,” Crypto Tony he said in a summary of his position on that day.

“When we look for a test of the trend line at $26,900, and on a reversal of that we have $27,300 to note, then up and away. We’re taking it one step at a time.”

Fellow trader Koala argued that the bullish and bearish extremes were centered in the $4,000-wide corridor, with the lows likely to be swept first before returning to $27,000.

“A set of equal highs and equal lows. I think we hit the same lows before the same highs,” he said he argued.

“The demand area is the area where I am interested in bidding for a higher price (invalidation is quite obvious). If demand holds, then 27,000+. Otherwise 23 kish.”

BTC/USD Commented Chart. Source: Koala/Twitter

For Credible Crypto, the potential range was narrower, with a $25,500 floor.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see us moving between the RED and GREEN regions below for a few more weeks. Any move above 28.5000 and we will break a key market structure level, which would mean that our corrective structure has been completed and we may have started a new impulsive move.” he wrote in the recent analysis section along with an explanatory table.

“The low shift in the timeframe below the GREEN is fine because (as in previous posts) my HTF bias above 20k is bullish. That being said, I would only expect a dip below GREEN due to some short-term, fundamental/event-driven volatility. We’ll see what the next few weeks bring.”

BTC/USD Commented Chart. Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter

Trader Pierre marked two trend lines in the form of 4-hour and 1-day support and resistance levels.

In addition, BTC price circled the classic 200-week moving average (MA) at the beginning of the week, which sits at $26,600 as of data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart on Bitstamp with 200-week MA. Source: TradingView

Speculators in the spotlight

As for where the BTC price could fall if bearish momentum were to return, chain analysis offers a clearer view of support.

For analytics firm Glassnode, the recent price action focused on a key tipping point for the more speculative cohort of Bitcoin investors.

Designations as “short-term holders (STH)” correspond to wallet entities that collect coins for 155 days or less.

The aggregate cost basis (CB) for these entities – the price at which they purchased the coins within this 155-day window – currently stands at $26,400, which roughly corresponds to the 200-week MA.

“Recent Volatility in Bitcoin Price Action Anchored Around Short-Term Holder Cost Base of $26.4K,” Glassnode he argued in a Twitter post over the weekend.

“This suggests that the STH-CB remains a key level in determining both the direction and momentum of the local trend.”

STH Bitcoin Data Annotated Chart. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Below $26,400, STHs will then start to run into unrealized losses on their investment, as shown in the accompanying chart.

Glassnode has previously marked the importance of STH-CB, which along with the equivalent for 155-day+ investors known as long-term holders (LTH), became a source of interest especially after the November 2022 FTX crash.

Macro cools down after a hard week

With markets in the United States closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. June 19, macro catalysts for crypto markets await later in the week.

Although not like numerous or significant as in the previous week, they still have the potential to produce surprising volatility.

The Federal Reserve is among them, with Chairman Jerome Powell set to testify before Congress over two days starting on June 21.

After the Fed’s recent decision to pause interest rate hikes but leave the door open to resuming them later, markets will be keenly analyzing Powell’s language for clues as to what might come next.

To close out the week, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will be released on June 22.

Among market participants, meanwhile, the focus is on both Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets and how they are affected by macro triggers.

“Not only has $BTC lost positive correlation with SPX and NDX, but we’ve also lost inverse correlation with DXY,” trader Josh Olszewicz he remarked they refer to Bitcoin’s interaction with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the US dollar last week.

Credible Crypto suggested that the recent disparity between the performance of BTC and the SPX – aside from what various sources called a “bull market rally” – may yet resolve in favor of the bulls.

Cointelegraph has frequently reported on the ups and downs of Bitcoin’s macro correlations in recent years. A notable theme post-2020 has been strength in Fed periods liquid injection and conversely.

GBTC gets BlackRock backing

Bitcoin itself may offer little inspiration, but one of its biggest investment vehicles is experiencing a resurgence of its own.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has launched a new attempt to narrow the steep discount to BTC’s spot price.

GBTC has been trading at this discount – which is actually a negative premium – from Bitcoin’s all-time highs in 2021. Since then, it has reached -50%.

BlackRock’s announcement last week of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) appears to have triggered a change in sentiment, and as of June 17, the premium has fell to -36.6%.

Like Cointelegraph reportedthe changes came despite arguments over the true status of BlackRock’s offering, with some saying it would not be spot ETFs, which remain banned in the US.

Chart of GBTC premium vs. asset holding vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Additionally, GBTC’s recent performance remains impressive – 36.6% is within reach of new 2023 highs for the premium.

The buyers also made themselves known and let the main client of ARK Invest react. ARK currently owns over 5.3 million GBTC shares.

GBTC ARK Invest Holding Chart (Screenshot). Source: Cathie’s ARK

Meanwhile, fresh speculation about an ETF offering this week centers on asset manager Fidelity Investments, with details still being worked out.

“I had GBTC for a long time before this, but this makes me more confident that it was the right move,” Investor Mike Alfred he responded.

Market optimism sees repeated tests

Sentiment in the crypto market took a fright last week thanks to the combined effects of US legal action against exchanges and macroeconomic policy changes.

Related: Bitcoin Bulls Want to Regain Control – Will BNB, LTC, OKB and QNT Follow?

View of Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows how recent events have left their mark – June 15 saw the lowest score since mid-March.

While it hints at a more “scary” setting than at any time since then, Fear & Greed remains surprisingly stable. Those lows came in at 41/100 – hardly “fearful” and then settled back into the stable “neutral” range.

As of June 19, the index measures 47/100.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Research firm Santiment went on to cite the BlackRock ETF story as potential fuel for the markets — specifically because some of the reaction has been hostile.

For Santiment, “the more negativity that surrounds this story, the greater the likelihood of continued upside” in crypto markets, he explained last week.

Magazine: Gary Gensler’s job in jeopardy, BlackRock’s first spot Bitcoin ETF and more news: Hodler’s Digest, 11-17

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading step involves risk and readers should do their own research when making decisions.