Don’t expect another catastrophic collapse to confirm your recession predictions this year, but rather a slow-moving decline, says Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist Tony Dwyer. “This is the most talked about recession ever,” Dwyer told Melissa Lee on CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week. He explained that one of the problems he sees among investors is that they are waiting for the next SVB or Lehman Brothers moment to signal a recession. “How about we get old school money?” he asked. According to Dwyer, all three paths to accumulating money come with their own obstacles. “You can earn it [but] we’re already at maximum earnings,” he explained. “You can get it from the bank and we know they don’t lend after SVB [collapse] and the regulatory standards for lending are very strict.” Raising cash through investments isn’t all that lucrative either, despite gains in the S&P 500 this year, Dwyer explained. Despite the benchmark’s 14% gain this year, Dwyer explained that the median stock on the NYSE rose only 3%. And 54% of the S&P 500 is trading 20% lower than in 52 weeks. “We’re in this complicated environment where a lot of stocks are already down quite a bit from their highs,” he said. “And they’re sitting there. How to play it Dwyer says investors should buy short-term US Treasuries because their yields are more attractive compared to so-called yield stocks, which are the inverse of the P/E ratio. According to FactSet, consensus estimates for this year’s S&P 500 earnings per share are just under $220, generating a yield of about 4.75% based on current prices. “The six-month Treasury bill gives you 5.4%,” he said. “So you have a risk-free rate of return that is at least 42 basis points above the consensus number. The strategy isn’t to go short when markets go negative, Dwyer explained, but rather to try to take advantage of future declines. “You don’t have to bet against it,” he said. “The question is if you want to bet with it when [you] can’t find the money to fund the next level of growth.”