With 90% of the votes counted in yesterday’s Turkish presidential election, President Erdogan is just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.



  1. In Turkey’s presidential election, with more than 90% of the vote tallied, President Erdogan appears to have confounded opinion polls that showed him trailing his challenger. The latest figures show that Erdogan won just under 50% of the vote. If this is upheld as the final result, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff election on the 28thThursday May. The Turkish lira fell on the newsin line with its long-term trend of the president fighting for the credibility of monetary policy. Currency pair USD/TRY hit a new 2-month high price.
  2. Markets are dominated by lingering concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures in the USalthough progress is perceived in debt ceiling negotiations, allaying concerns.
  3. In the forex market, the US dollar has not fared much since the opening of this week in Asia. Action has so far been dominated by weakness in the Japanese yen, with currency pair USD/JPY rises again. So far today, we see the most strength in the New Zealand Dollar and the most weakness in the Japanese Yen. The long-term bearish trend in the US dollar remains valid, although the strength of last week’s retracement suggests that it is likely to persist for a while. However, trend traders may still be looking for long trades EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs.
  4. A slow bullish trend in Gold remains technically valid as it continues to trade above the very large round number at $2,000, despite its decline from a high near the all-time high of $2,070 reached two weeks ago.
  5. Some soft commodities have made new highs and are trending strongly, esp Sugar ETF Cane a Cocoa NIB ETF, both of which hit multi-year highs last week.
  6. US Empire State Manufacturing data will be released later today.

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