Workers silhouetted against the setting sun at the Coastal Road Project construction site in Mumbai.
Punish Paranjpe | Afp | Getty Images
India is not the new China, and the emerging superpower is marching to the beat of its own drum and could “enjoy several years of very high growth,” Riedel Research Group said.
“[I’m] very, very bullish on India — they’re doing all the right things and have a very high chance of beating expectations in the next six to 24 months,” David Riedel, CEO of the equity research and analysis firm, told CNBC. post.
“Definitely prefer India over China,” he continued. “The Chinese Economy [is] much larger, but it is a remarkable shift because India has consistently lagged behind China.”
Riedel also argued that India is a “very different country” from what China is today and has been.
According to Riedel, India is successfully maneuvering the middle income growth trap with a number of tools in the toolbox such as monetization and digitization of their economy as well as change in their tax structure.
The middle income trap is an the situation of economic development where growing economies stagnate at middle-income levels and are unable to advance to the ranks of high-income countries.
“I think it has a chance to enjoy a few years of very high growth and I think that’s what investors should be looking for,” he told “Street Signs Asia” in an interview on Friday.
India is predicted to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third largest economy by the end of the decade. S&P Global and Morgan Stanley last December.
And some of those brighter spots can be found in outsourcing and financial sectors.
“This is truly the decade and expansion of Indian financial services,” Manish Chokhani, director of Enam Holdings, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.
“The whole mutual fund business, the private sector banking business … they really have decades of growth ahead of them.”
On the other hand, China’s growth trajectory may not be as rosy as it once was.
China will not be as strong in the next five years as it was in the last five years, Riedel predicts. He cited headwinds such as high youth unemployment in cities and a growing number of supply chains moving out of China.
In May, youth unemployment in China rose to a record 20.8% among 16- to 24-year-olds.
China has also seen a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data recently, pointing to shaky growth rates. Factory activity in China fell further in Junewhile non-manufacturing activity was the weakest since Beijing abandoned its strict “zero Covid” policy late last year.
That being said, Riedel said he has seen some green shoots coming out of the Covid lockdown in certain consumer industries and tourism.
“I’m not an eternal bear in China. I just have a harder time finding opportunities these days.”