Hosted by crypto analyst Marcel Pechman, Macro Markets airs every Friday on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel and explains complex concepts in layman’s terms, focusing on the cause and effect of traditional financial events on daily crypto activity.

Episode 13 of Cointelegraph’s Macro Markets begins by examining why the latest move by the United States Federal Reserve was pinned on the stock market rally. According to Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman, some of the market doubted that the Fed would continue to keep interest rates above 5% for the rest of 2023 as the risks of an economic recession increase, but they were clearly wrong.

Pechman reports that the US government has indicated that it is not worried about unemployment and weaker corporate earnings as long as inflation is under control. Therefore, the most likely reasons for the recovery in the US stock market were the risk that the Fed will raise interest rates – which did not materialize – and the recent macroeconomic data, which produced 4% inflation and 1.6% growth in retail sales.

Meanwhile, according to Pechman, the crypto-regulatory environment is decidedly unfavorable, and the two biggest risks to the US dollar have dissipated: the debt ceiling and runaway inflation. So, with the property sector weak, investors seem to have chosen the stock market as their preferred vehicle in the coming months.

The next part of the program discusses the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) is raising interest rates for the eighth time in a row. It was clear to Pechman that the ECB was not as hawkish as the US central bank and is now catching up with its 3.5% base interest rate.

Pechman explains how credit default swaps work and shows the market-priced bias between US and European country risk. His conclusion? Perhaps the US dollar will retain its dominant reserve status longer than expected. However, the prospects for the euro do not look great as the region has already entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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