Greetings from New York, where political chatter swells about former US President Donald Trump’s bid to become the Republican nominee for the 2024 race. But while pundits ponder the US far-right, green activists need to keep an eye on the conservative vote in Europe as well.

Spanish voters went to the polls this weekend in an election that greatly strengthened Alberto Núñez Feijó, the leader of the right. Like other conservatives in Europe, he is running on a platform that seeks to slow down the green transition. Meanwhile, in London, following the recent parliamentary by-election, calls within Britain’s Conservative Party for the scrapping of net zero measures are growing.

It remains unclear whether British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will heed these demands to weaken green policy. One complicating factor is that polls indicate fairly strong bipartisan support for green policies in the country, even during a cost-of-living crisis. IN survey of the National Statistical Office this month, for example, 62 per cent of British adults said they felt “very” or “somewhat” worried about climate change – compared with 92 per cent worried about the cost of living, 88 per cent about the NHS and 79 per cent about the economy.

That leaves concern about climate issues below the 74 percent level seen last year — but still significantly high. And 62 percent of respondents this year said they had changed their lifestyle in response to climate change.

But while such polls make conservatives wary of overtly opposing the Greens or reversing existing policies, there is a growing risk that Sunak’s team may be less aggressive in pushing new Green reforms. This is important given how much needs to be done – and coordinated – to achieve net zero goals. Retrofitting the housing stock, for example, is a policy that will require government action. So it will be interesting to see what the opposition Labor Party has to say about the Green Agenda when it meets at its party conference this autumn. Let us know what you think it should do.

And in the meantime, check out the story below about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a battle for a vast swath of rare earth minerals needed for green technology. And look at the FT report how extreme heat is reshaping economies. — Gillian Tett

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Ukraine is sitting on a treasure chest to support the energy transition

Another week, another wave of depressing news from Ukraine.

As Kiev launches its counteroffensive, it is attacking targets such as the Kerch Bridge, Russia bombed Ukrainian port citieswith the warning that he would treat the grain ships as military targets.

My friends working with Ukrainian forces in places like Zaporizhzhia are now preparing for long, ugly battles as Kiev tries to retake eastern areas like the Donbass. So did the Western Allies, judging by the mood Aspen Security Forum last week which featured video address by Volodymyr Zelensky.

This obviously has major implications for geopolitics. What is less well known, however, is that these battles are also of great importance to green technology. Ukraine sits on huge reserves of hydrocarbons. However, it also sits on one of Europe’s largest deposits of critical minerals needed for electric vehicles and other clean energy applications.

Earth has an estimated 500,000 tons of lithium, scientists from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine he said last year. This total displaces Portugal as the largest source of lithium in Europe. But for now, none of the lithium is being mined in Ukraine, the researchers said.

More broadly, Foreign Policy magazine he said last yearciting Ukrainian government documents and foreign analysts that the country had “commercially relevant deposits of 117 of the 120 most used industrial minerals in more than 8,700 investigated bearings“. The total value of these deposits – including titanium, iron, neon, nickel and lithium – has been estimated at up to 11.5 tn. There are also reserves of other mineral resources considered critical by the IEA such as beryllium, niobium, tantalum, titanium and cobalt, along with non-critical elements such as uranium and feldspar – to name a few.

Before Moscow’s invasion, Ukraine was preparing plans to develop these resources by offering tax breaks and investment rights to outside investors. Unfortunately, these plans did not go very far.

“It’s an incredibly important topic of war that people don’t understand,” one senior US official told me recently. And doubly critical, Western allies are frantically looking for ways to break their dependence on Chinese supply chains for these minerals.

To return to lithium: China is world class the third largest producer of lithium and was also on “acquisition flash” for lithium projects around the world. China still accounts for about 50 percent of all batteries installed in electric vehicles worldwide — more than Europe and the U.S. combined, according to Morgan Stanley.

While Western automakers and entrepreneurs like Elon Musk are trying to develop alternative sources of lithium, it’s unlikely to see quick results anytime soon, not least because getting permits for the dirty work of mining and processing lithium is difficult in the US and Europe. Hence the exciting prospect of trying to develop critical minerals in a place like Ukraine, which will be desperate for new sources of growth if (or when) the war ends.

Unfortunately, the Russian authorities are also very aware of the geopolitical importance of these minerals, and many reserves are located in Russian-controlled territory; indeed, Western diplomats suspect that the location of this wealth was one of the reasons why Putin’s regime annexed four territories in eastern Ukraine last year.

I am told that Wagner’s group of mercenaries is particularly attuned to the commercial implications of these minerals. Titanium, in particular is a key focus. But no one should underestimate the determination of Western leaders to break their dependence on China – and the ability of mineral exploration to spring a surprise. Consider, for example, what just happened in Norway: a few weeks ago, the Anglo-Norwegian group Norge Mining announced that it had discovered huge reserves of phosphate rock in Rogaland, which apparently amount to at least 70 billion tons, almost equal to previously known global phosphate reserves.

Given that phosphate is a key mineral used in the main form of lithium-ion battery known as LFP, the discovery is “a very big deal”, said Gavin Harper, a geologist at the University of Birmingham. “Until this discovery, only five countries were under control 85 percent of the world’s reserves, with 70 percent in Morocco alone,” he notes. “It is China that mines the most phosphate rock 85 million tons in 2021with Morocco next at 38 million tonnes.

Norge does not expect to sell phosphate from this reserve until 2028, due to a chaotic and time-consuming approval and investment process in Europe. In the US, the approval problem is probably even worse (as we recently noted.) But as entrepreneurs look for more deposits on Western soil, Ukraine is likely to seem even more tantalizing. Which, of course, is another reason to hope that the Western alliance will help Kiev win the war soon. (Gillian Tett and Patrick Temple-West)

Smart reading

Extreme heat is reshaping economic output – and it’s not just tourism at risk from heat waves. Industries from construction to manufacturing, agriculture, transportation and insurance are all preparing for changes in the way they do business, write our colleagues in this A great read worth your time. There is evidence that extreme heat “pulls our growth down”.