Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea

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Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their forecast for oil prices by nearly 10% on whey they see rising supply and slower oil demand.

The investment bank cut its December Brent outlook to $86 a barrel from $95 a barrel, according to a report released late Sunday. In the same report, Goldman also revised its December WTI forecast down from $89 a barrel to $81.

The revised projection marks Goldman’s third downward revision in six months and comes despite last week’s announcement the king of OPEC Saudi Arabia is cutting production from July by another million barrels per day. Total oil cartel made no changes to planned oil production cuts for the rest of the year.

“Significant declines in supply from Iran and Russia have pushed speculative positions to near record lows,” Goldman analysts led by the bank’s global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie said in a research note.

Russian oil production has remained resilient in the face of Western sanctions, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin confirming in April that oil production in Moscow would remain stable until 2025according to Neftegazovaya Vertikal magazine.

“After an initial sharp decline of 1.5 million barrels per day, Russian supply has almost fully recovered despite the decision by many companies to stop buying Russian barrels,” Goldman economists said.

The bank made an upward revision to forecasts for oil supplies from countries facing sanctions, with “2024 upgrades for Russia, Iran and Venezuela of 0.4/0.35/0.05 mb/d, respectively.”

While news of an interim nuclear deal between the US and Iran were described as false, market watchers had previously estimated that a successful deal could bring at least another million barrels a day in oil exports.

“Hope for a US-Iran deal there is one thing at hand. But guaranteeing a quick and unencumbered passage of such a complex, layered deal is something else entirely,” Mizuho’s Vishnu Varathan said in a daily survey.

Goldman believes that additional cuts by Saudi Arabia are unlikely to lead to higher prices, even if the kingdom’s output falls to 9 million barrels per day from around 10 million barrels in May.

“Additional Saudi cuts and our expectation that OPEC+ will extend half of its April voluntary cuts into 2024 are likely to only partially offset these bearish shocks,” the report continued.

International benchmark Brent Oil futures traded at $73.99 a barrel on Monday morning, down 1.07%, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $69.43, down 1.05%.

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