EURUSD drops below the 50% and 200 bar MA on the 4H chart

EURUSD continues lower today. Overnight, the Ifo business climate index for Germany in July 2023 came in at 87.3, below expectations of 88.0 and also lower than the previous reading of 88.6 (revised from 88.5). This helped the downward momentum slightly

The Fed is the first central bank to meet this week. It is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.5% tomorrow. What the Fed says about future policy will be key. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Most ECB officials also talked about the September meeting being data-driven.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD price has fallen below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the July 6 low (one-month range). This level is at 1.10539. The current price is trading at 1.1045 after hitting a swing low of 1.10386 today. Prices have also moved below their 100-bar moving average of the 4-hour chart at 110617. This moving average is now close to risk (see the line below in the chart above). Staying lower keeps the seller more in control.

On the other hand, the June 23 swing high came in at 1.10102. The July 11 swing high comes in at 1.10267. The area (see the red numbered circles in the chart above) between these 2 levels along with the 61.8% retracement of the same move above at 1.10017 is another bearish target to reach and pass. Below that is the rising 200 bar moving average at 1.10707 (this is between the swing area between 1.09618 and 1.09759).

Sellers have more control below the 50% retracement and 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart.

Source Link