The pair reflects this week’s stark contrast in fortunes, with the dollar suffering after the Fed’s decision while the euro is boosted by the ECB’s decision. This saw a break back above the 100-day moving average (red line) and the 1.0800 barrier in a race to the 1.0940 level at the moment.
There are big option expirations in play today, which may be what’s holding the pair back a bit for now. From a technical point of view, however, the path to a retest of the 1.1000 boundary looks clear.
The Euro has been exceptional this week, and not just in EUR/USD, with EUR/JPY also rising to its highest levels since 2008. he just squishes in the last few sessions.
A hawkish ECB was also part of the picture, with policymakers essentially confirming one more rate hike in July while even talking about the possibility of another in September. It rattled the markets with a flurry of revised calls for the ECB to raise interest rates to 4.00% now.
For EUR/USD, a test of 1.1000 will see some resistance amid bids in play, but the real test for buyers next will be a break above the April and May highs around 1.1075-95.