Via CBA, preview comment:

• The labor market remains extremely tight but is not tightening further. The unemployment rate has been in the range of 3.5-3.7% since November last year. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, and given the acute labor shortages of recent years, there’s a logical argument why the labor market has so far been resilient despite the slowing economy.
• While there has not yet been a material easing, there are signs that spare capacity is increasing, evidenced by higher underemployment and labor demand softening from elevated levels. Furthermore, strong population growth means an increase in labor supply, and more new jobs are needed each month to keep the unemployment rate at its current level. This, as well as forecasts of below-trend growth, form the basis of our view that unemployment will rise over time.