in meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping exchanged warm smiles with Bill Gates in Beijing on Friday, praising Mr Gates as the “first American friend” he met this year.
Meetings between Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his Chinese counterparts in Beijing starting on Sunday are likely to be noticeably cooler.
High level meeting are focused on getting US-China relations back on track, and many American businessmen are pushing the Biden administration to try to restore some stability to one of the world’s most important bilateral relationships.
But for business leaders and officials on both sides, expectations for the meetings appear modest, and the talks have two main goals. One of them is to restore communication between governments, which has broken down this year Chinese tracking balloon flew into American airspace, and Mr. Blinken canceled a visit planned for February. The second is to stop any further decline in relations between the countries.
There is already evidence of the impact of frayed ties. Foreign direct investment in China fell to 18-year-old minimum. A 2023 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that companies still consider the Chinese market a priority, but their willingness to invest there is declining.
“Economic relations have become so bleak that any sign of progress is welcome, although expectations for any kind of breakthrough are low,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, which represents multinational companies.
“We hope that high-level dialogues like this can begin to bring some certainty for business to an increasingly tense and unpredictable trade relationship,” he said.
Still, as one of the world’s largest consumer markets and home to many factories that supply global businesses, China has a strong pull. This year, as it eased its travel restrictions after three years of pandemic lockdowns, a parade of CEOs have made trips to China, including Mary Barra of General Motors, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone.
On a visit to China this month, Tesla CEO and Twitter owner Elon Musk described the US and Chinese economies as “conjoined twins” and said he opposed efforts to split them. Apple CEO Tim Cook traveled to China in March and praised the “symbiotic” relationship of society with the nation.
Sam Altman, OpenAI leader who makes the ChatGPT chatbot, appeared virtually told a conference in Beijing this month that American and Chinese scientists should continue to work together to counter the risks of artificial intelligence.
The technology industry, which has forged lucrative relationships with Chinese manufacturers and consumers, has been wary of Washington’s aggressive approach toward China. While industry groups recognize the importance of taking steps to protect national security, they have urged the Biden administration to carefully measure its steps.
Wendy Cutler, a former diplomat and trade negotiator who is now a vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the United States and China may announce some small steps forward at the end of the meeting. Governments could agree to increase the paltry number of flights between their countries or the visas they issue to foreign visitors, she said.
But both sides will have plenty of complaints, Ms. Cutler said. Chinese officials are likely to complain about US tariffs on Chinese-made goods and restrictions on US firms selling coveted chip technology to China. American officials can emphasize Deteriorating business environment in China and his recent go to bar companies which process critical information from the purchase of microchips manufactured by the American company Micron.
“I don’t expect any breakthroughs, especially on the economic front,” Ms Cutler said, adding: “Neither side is going to want to smile.”
US officials hope Mr Blinken’s visit will pave the way for greater cooperation, including on issues such as climate change and debt restructuring for developing countries. Other officials, including Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, are considering visits to China this year, and Mr. Xi and President Biden may meet directly at the Group of 20 meeting in Delhi in September or at the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum in San Francisco. in November.
In recent months, Biden officials have tried to mend the divide between the countries by arguing for more “constructive” relationship. They echo European officials in a statement that their wish is for “de-risking and diversification” their economic relations with China, not “separation”.
But trust between the governments has frayed, and Chinese officials appear skeptical of how much the Biden administration can do to restore relations.
The extensive restrictions in the US on semiconductor technology that can be shared with China, released in October, continue to rankle officials in Beijing. The United States has added dozens of Chinese companies to sanctions lists for aiding China’s military and surveillance state or circumventing U.S. restrictions on trade with Iran and Russia.
Biden administration officials are considering additional restrictions on China, including a long-delayed blanket regulation some US venture capital investments. And the White House faces strong pressure from Congress do more to counter national security threats emanating from Beijing.
Not all companies are pushing to improve ties. Some with less exposure to China have tried to gain political advantage in Washington from growing competition with the country. Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has repeatedly raised concerns about TikTok, the Chinese video app that has emerged as a formidable competitor to Instagram.
“It’s really a title fight,” said James Lewis, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “How accommodating are you? How confrontational are you?”
How aggressively companies are resisting tensions with China, Mr. Lewis said, is related to their exposure to the country’s market.
“I think it has a lot to do with your presence in China,” he said.